The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens have supposedly also followed the Chicago Bears’ blueprint for trying to build an NFL champion during Lovie Smith’s tenure as Chicago’s coach. An examination of drive stats shows that’s not true, and just how much less support the Bears offense provides their defense than any other NFL team.
Before we go any further, this is not meant as a Fire Lovie Smith screed. Despite a seemingly misguided philosophy, Smith has won 55.5 percent of his games with good, but not overwhelming talent. In short, it’s hard to argue that Lovie Smith is a bad coach. He may not be a good one, but he’s been at least average. At least. No, this blog post is Part II of an earlier post that is about what Chicago needs to do in the future, namely make offense far and away the No. 1 offseason priority, hopefully starting with signing TWO receivers capable of topping 1,000 yards such as Vincent Jackson or Marques Colston and Mario Manningham.
The good folks at footballoutsiders.com provided the drive stats that are the basis of this analysis. I took their numbers and compared the Bears to the Ravens and Steelers in each of Lovie Smith’s eight years as head coach.
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Chicago Bears quarterback Josh McCown (15) rolls out in the second half of an NFL football game against the Seattle Seahawks in Chicago on Sunday, Dec. 18, 2011. Starter Caleb Hanie struggled again filling in for the injured Jay Cutler in the team’s loss to Seattle.
This is where we see how misleading all the talk was about how close the Bears were on offense because they averaged 32 points in the five-game stretch right before Jay Cutler was injured this year, or how the Bears tied for second in the NFL in scoring in 2006.
If you break it down by how the Bears did for all the chances they got, they may have been No. 2 in points in 2006, but they were No. 17 in drive success (a combination of yards per drive, points per drive, fewest punts per drive and fewest turnovers per drive). This year, they were 27th.
Because the Bears pass so poorly (or so unwillingly), they put their defense on the field more than any team in football.
Over the last eight years:
Pittsburgh’s defense has been on the field for 1,397 total drives, an average of 10.9 per game.
Baltimore’s defense has been on the field for 1,490 drives, an average of 11.6 per game.
Chicago’s defense has been on the field for 1,593 yards, an average of 12.44 per game.
With an average of 25 more drives per year, Chicago’s defense has basically played 2 1/2 games more than Pittsburgh’s defense has played. Every year for eight years in a row. No wonder Chicago’s defense seems to wear down in the fourth quarter. With Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman and Julius Peppers all going to be at least 10-year veterans next year, the Bears need to give them more rest. The best way to do that would be by holding the ball more on offense, the way Peyton Manning protected the Colts’ defense for over a decade.
Here are the Bears compared to the Ravens and Steelers in terms of their year-by-year NFL rankings in Yards gained per drive, points scored per drive, total offensive drive rating and total defensive drive rating:
CHICAGO BEARS Baltimore Ravens Pittsburgh Steelers
Year Yds Pts. Off. Def. Yds Pts. Off. Def. Yds Pts. Off. Def.
2004 32 32 32 9 26 26 28 3 12 9 10 5
2005 31 31 31 1 27 28 26 7 8 6 8 11
2006 16 10 17 2 19 15 20 1 3 11 6 9
2007 31 25 30 4 23 27 24 2 12 6 7 5
2008 27 24 27 9 24 19 20 1 23 18 18 2
2009 23 19 24 22 12 10 12 4 7 12 10 8
2010 30 22 28 5 14 13 13 3 5 14 6 8
To sum up, the Bears are almost nothing like Pittsburgh. The Steelers have actually been well-balanced on offense (with an average ranking of 9.9) and defense (average of 6.8). The Steelers have an average score of 10.3 in yards gained, with a high of No. 3 and three seasons in the top seven, and an average of 10.8 in points scored. In short, the Steelers have had close to a top-10 offense by almost every measure every year. They had only one season in eight when they weren’t in the top 10 in either yards gained or points scored per drive.
The Bears, on the other hand, were in the top 10 only once in either yards gained or points scored per drive, and then barely so, finishing 10th in points in 2006. The Bears have never been in the top 15 in yards gained per drive, and ranked in the top 22 only once. Their average offensive rankings per drive are 27.4 in yards, 23.4 in points and 27 in drive-success rate. The points are artificially propped up by Chicago’s great special teams play and a defense that often gives them a short field by taking the ball away. Chicago’s defense, with no help from its offense, works out to an average rating of 7.1. Seven times in Lovie Smith’s eight years, Chicago has had a top-10 defense per drive, including five times in the top five.
The Ravens are the only team that has played better defense than Chicago, ranking in the top 10 all eight years and in the top four six times. But their offense has been at least closer to middle-of-the-road than Chicago’s. The Ravens have an average ranking of 19.9 in yards gained, 19 in points scored per drive and 19.5 in overall offensive drive success compared to 3.8 on defense.
The Steelers defense has had more fourth-quarter failures than any other great defense in memory. And people get mad when the Bears can’t hold late against Denver.
When the Bears have failed late, it’s usually been in games that would have been already over for Pittsburgh.
The Ravens play somewhat like the Bears, but are clearly better on both offense and defense. And haven’t really won any more in the playoffs than the Bears have.
Chicago doesn’t need to improve it’s defense. The Bears just need to give that defense less of a load. Shorten the game by two drives by per game and Urlacher, Peppers, Briggs, Tillman and Co. won’t need any more help.
And the way to shorten the game is with more first downs on offense. And the way to do that is with a better offensive line and far, far better receivers for Jay Cutler to throw to.
Six NFL teams won more than 10 games last year. The Packers (178 drives defended), Saints (177), 49ers (190), Patriots (175), Ravens (184) and Steelers (166) averaged 178.3 times they put their defense on the field. The Bears did so 201 times. That’s twice more per game.
Fix that and you go a long, long way toward fixing the Bears.
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